Disney is being more cautious and suggesting a domestic launch in the $225 million-$240 million range. Whatever the case, Infinity War is sure of securing the second-biggest launch of all time, eclipsing Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220 million).
And globally, Infinity War could eclipse The Fate of the Furious ($541.9 million) to land the biggest box-office launch of all time. That’s without the benefit of China, where it doesn’t land until May 11.
Infinity War has already earned a mighty $178.5 million internationally in its first three days (Wednesday through Friday) for an early global total of $284.5 million.
Friday’s North American gross was $106 million, the second-best single day in history behind the $119.2 million earned by Force Awakens on its first day. Until now, Avengers: Age of Ultron sported the biggest single day for a superhero pic ($84.4 million).
It’s a Marvel superhero bonanza all the way around as Black Panther moves up the chart from No. 8 to No. 5 in its ninth weekend with projected earnings of $3.6 million.
To date, The Avengers ($207.4 million) holds the record for the biggest superhero launch, followed by Black Panther ($202 million). They are the only two superhero titles to have crossed $200 million in their first weekend.
After Force Awakens, the biggest North American openings belong to Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220 million) and Jurassic World ($208.8 million).
The success of Disney and Marvel’s Black Panther could be a huge boost for Infinity War. Black Panther has earned $681 million in North America to become the No. 3 film of all time behind Force Awakens ($936.7 million) and Avatar ($760.5 million). Globally, it has earned $1.325 billion to rest at No. 10 of the all-time biggest earners.
Overseas, Infinity War scored the biggest opening day in a slew of markets, including South Korea — where it has earned $11.4 million in its first two days — Brazil, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Central America, Chile, Peru, Bolivia and the United Arab Emirates.
From a critical standpoint, reviews on RottenTomatoes currently give the film an 87% rating and on Metacritic the film holds a score of 68. While these are nowhere near the highest marks among films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the reviews seem unlikely to have any major effect on the box office one way or another, but they could suggest a somewhat softer word of mouth than possibly expected.
Overall, while it wouldn’t be surprising to see Infinity War deliver the largest opening weekend of all-time, it seems like a daunting task. When The Force Awakens debuted it was the first new live-action film in the Star Wars franchise in ten years and while Infinity War is being billed as the culmination of ten years of films in the MCU, there have been 18 films released within that franchise over the course of those ten years. Make no mistake, Infinity War will be a monster at this weekend’s box office, and we’re anticipating a performance anywhere from $225-250 million for the three-day, but hitting the higher end of that range may prove difficult.
Internationally, Infinity War began hitting theaters yesterday with $39 million as it debuted in South Korea, France, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand and many others. The film opened at #1 in all markets, including a $6.7 million debut in Australia, the second highest opening day in industry history behind just Force Awakens. The $6.5 million opening in South Korea is the largest opening day in the market ever, along with a $3.9 million opening in both France and Italy and a record $2.7 million debut in the Philippines.
By the end of the weekend the film will have opened in ~72% of the international marketplace, with only key territories such as Russia (May 3) and China (May 11) remaining. Examining the same suite of territories based on today’s exchange rates, The Avengers opened to $189 million while Captain America: Civil War opened to $231 million and Avengers: Age of Ultron opened to $254 million. All told, depending on just how high Infinity War climbs, it could have a shot at becoming only the fourth film to have ever delivered a worldwide opening over $500 million. The major difficulty will be doing hitting that mark without China, a feat accomplished by Force Awakens alone.
A Quiet Place should land in the runner-up position. We’re currently anticipating it will be the only film on the rest of the weekend charts to deliver double digits over the weekend, finishing around $10.3 million over its fourth weekend as it continues its impressive run, looking at a domestic cume just shy of $150 million domestically by the end of the weekend.
Warner Bros. and New Line’s Rampage is likely to feel the effect of Infinity War as we’re expecting a drop around 56%, if not higher, and a third weekend gross right around $9 million, which would put the film’s domestic cume just over $80 million after 17 days in release.
Fourth place should go to Amy Schumer‘s I Feel Pretty and while we’re currently expecting a drop right around 45%, we wouldn’t surprised if this one held on just a bit better and possibly well enough to leap-frog Rampage for a third place finish. Right now we’re expecting a three-day just shy of $9 million, finishing the weekend with a domestic cume over $30 million.
Rounding out the top five is Fox Searchlight’s Super Troopers 2, which we’re expecting to dip over 60% this weekend for a $5+ million three-day. Come the end of the weekend the film’s domestic cume should be just short of $25 million, nearly doubling its $13.5 million production budget after just ten days in release.
This weekend’s forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Avengers: Infinity War – $230.0 M
- A Quiet Place – $10.2 M
- Rampage – $9.0 M
- I Feel Pretty – $8.9 M
- Super Troopers 2 – $5.9 M
- Truth or Dare – $3.7 M
- Ready Player One – $3.4 M
- Blockers – $3.4 M
- Black Panther – $2.9 M
- Isle Of Dogs – $1.7 M